Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 126-123 loss to the Miami Heat from Salt Lake Tribune beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Matryoshka Dolls of Clutch Slipperiness
Clutchness is slippery.
If there’s one overarching theme that might be the most consistent of the entire analytical movement in every sport, it might be that: clutchness can be inconsistent.
Jazz fans are super familiar with that, I think. Donovan Mitchell, for example, was widely seen as a very clutch player who rose his game in the biggest moments... and then came out in last year’s playoffs and shot 40% from the field and 20% from three while playing lackluster defense.
This Jazz team might be proving that in-season, too. They started the year with two very clutch overtime wins, and had some clutch wins against some of the Western Conference’s best teams in November — 1-point wins against the Grizzlies and Suns. And now, they’ve lost their last 4 by a combined 13 points.
While we’re at it, even tonight’s game continues the Matryoshka Dolls of Clutch Slipperiness. The Jazz had the lead in the 4th quarter, lost it, but came back from a 7-point deficit with three minutes left, then lost that comeback due to free throw misses, then gained it again due to the Heat’s own free-throw misses and a probably wrong call on the Markkanen 3, and finally lost it at the buzzer on a pretty tough shot by Tyler Herro.
TYLER HERRO WINS IT FOR THE HEAT 😱#TissotBuzzerBeater | #TimingEmotions pic.twitter.com/MqLHRlsVXL
— NBA (@NBA) January 1, 2023
(By the way, Will Hardy thought the Jazz’s defense was good in that possession. As he pointed out, “With six seconds, full court, in the bonus, there’s not a whole lot you can do. Because the worst play in the game would have been bumping him going full court on the dribble.” Clarkson’s contesting from the side, trapping is tough because he definitely has time to pass out of it... it’s just a tough shot.)
In the end, I’m impressed with the degree to which they fight in those final moments, the degree to which they continue to run ball-movement offense, and the energy to scramble for loose balls even if they don’t always get them. Clutchness is slippery — sometimes, the refs make bad calls, sometimes, the opponent makes tough shots.
2. On Jarred Vanderbilt’s defense
Yesterday, we talked about how much better defensively the Jazz are when Walker Kessler is in the game. Today, let’s look at the flip side of that coin: how disappointing Jarred Vanderbilt has been defensively.
Jazz defensive rating tonight with Vanderbilt in the game: 154
— Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) January 1, 2023
Jazz defensive rating tonight with Kessler in the game: 108
You really cannot have consecutive games where you allow your opponent to score over 1.5 points per possession when you’re on the floor. To be fair to Vanderbilt, it’s not usually this bad, but he has the second-worst on-court defensive rating of anyone on the team — only Simone Fontecchio is worse.
There are a few problems I see. To start off with, he’s obviously not the biggest guy, which means he’s not a rim protector or an incredible defensive rebounder.
But you can have that limitation and still be a better defender than this. I think, first, he math on the gambles he takes doesn’t work out. Take this play:
Sure, he’s got a chance at an offensive rebound here — but he’s got to watch where the ball is going, right? As it is, he leaves Bam Adebayo to be all by himself if the Heat do get the rebound, which they’re likely to.
Or this play. It’s hard to know if the Jazz’s scheme in this moment was to switch or not switch. Perhaps it’s Olynyk that should have popped out on Oladipo. But regardless, I think Vanderbilt can have better recognition there to say “welp, Olynyk’s got paint, I don’t need to take three steps in there now.”
It just has to be a higher level. Regardless of whether or not you think Vanderbilt is overrated as a defender, he has to play better defense than this in order to stay on the floor in the NBA, let alone with an up-and-coming Kessler behind him.
3. Thinking about 2023
Welp, 2022 was a pretty awful year in Jazz terms. Joe Ingles tore his ACL; the team had some truly mind-numbing losses in the regular season; players, coaches, and the front office sparred with the media; the team got torched by a Luka-less Dallas team in the first round; Quin Snyder resigned; they traded two All-Stars; and they changed their look to have the worst jerseys in the NBA. There’s more here, but to be honest, the less said the better.
The good news is that all of that struggle — and, to give them significant credit, Danny Ainge and Ryan Smith’s recognition and willingness to act after that struggle — has set them up pretty well to have a productive 2023. Lauri Markkanen’s a stud, and it really looks like he can be the second-best player on a championship team. Trade value of other players on the roster has increased. They have one million draft picks moving forward, including three first rounders next year. And in the mean time, even if they’re not the best team in the world, they’re fun to watch.
The turn of the calendar might also be a good time to take stock of the team’s direction, at least over the next few months. Honestly, there’s actually a case for going for wins and trading for good players immediately. The Western Conference looks extremely flat this year, and the Jazz are only three games out of having home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If a team out there was selling a star, and they were a long term fit, you could reasonably buy that star for the Jazz’s assortment of random contracts and picks while not really mortgaging the future.
It probably makes a little more sense to go the other direction, though, just because even if you do get that star, you’re probably not really a true title contender still. They’re only three games out from having the 6th-worst record in the NBA, and the Jazz could probably get there if they traded away one or two of their veterans for longer-term assets. It wouldn’t be as much fun as what they’ve got going now, but it could set them up for more long-term success.
In particular, given that Minnesota’s struggles currently have them as the 8th-worst record in the NBA, they could have a 15% or so combined chance to get Victor Wembanyama. I’ve written about this before, but there’s a real chance Wembanyama is the best prospect of all time. If you have him in the future, you have a great pathway to winning NBA titles. If you don’t have him, your pathway of winning NBA titles has to go through Wembanyama. He’s that good.
What probably doesn’t make a ton of sense is to fight tooth and nail for the 10th seed, where the Jazz currently stand. Sure, continue to develop your guys through winning situations, give Markkanen, Sexton, Kessler, and the like real chances to improve and learn. Compete in a real way. But losing valiantly, as the Jazz did tonight, isn’t the worst thing in the world, either.
If things go well, 2023 in Jazzland can set up a brilliant 2024 and years to come. And heck, even if things go less well — it probably can’t be worse than what 2022 was, right?
Happy New Year, everyone.
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